March 27, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
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March
27, 2003, 1425hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - There has been
a sharp increase in activity on the southern front. As
of 0700hrs the coalition forces are subjected to nearly
constant attacks along the entire length of the front.
The Iraqi command took the advantage of the raging sand
storm to regroup its troops and to reinforce the defenses
along the approaches to Karabela and An-Najaf with two
large armored units (up to two armored brigades totaling
up to 200 tanks). The Iraqi attack units were covertly
moved near the positions of the US 3rd Infantry Division
(Motorized) and the 101st Airborne Division. With sunrise
and a marginal visibility improvement the Iraqis attacked
these US forces in the flank to the west of Karabela.
Simultaneously,
massive artillery barrages and counterattacks were launched
against units of the US 3rd Infantry Division
and the 101st Airborne Division conducting combat operations
near An-Najaf. The situation [for the US troops] was complicated
by the fact that the continuing sand storm forced them
to group their units into battalion convoys in order to
avoid losing troops and equipment in near zero-visibility
conditions. These battalion convoys were concentrated along
the roads leading to Karabela and An-Najaf and had only
limited defenses. There was no single line of the front;
aerial reconnaissance in these conditions was not possible
and until the very last moment the coalition command was
unaware of the Iraqi preparations.
During one of such attacks [the Iraqi forces] caught off-guard
a unit of the US 3rd Infantry Division that was doing vehicle
maintenance and repairs. In a short battle the US unit
was destroyed and dispersed, leaving behind one armored
personnel carrier, a repair vehicle and two Abrams tanks,
one of which was fully operational.
At the present time visibility in the combat zone does
not exceed 300 meters, which limits the effectiveness of
the 101st Airborne Division and that of its 70 attack helicopters
representing the main aerial reconnaissance and ground
support force of the coalition. One of the coalition transport
helicopters crashed yesterday during take-off. The reason
for the crash was sand in the engine compressors.
The Iraqis were able to get in range for close combat
without losses and now fierce battles are continuing in
the areas of Karabela and An-Najaf. The main burden of
supporting the coalition ground troops has been placed
with the artillery and ground attack aircraft. Effectiveness
of the latter is minimal due to the weather conditions.
Strikes can be delivered only against old Iraqi targets
with known coordinates, while actually supporting the ground
troops engaged in combat is virtually impossible and attempts
to do so lead to the most unfortunate consequences.
Intercepted radio communications show that at around 0615hrs
this morning the lead of a flight of two A-10 ground attack
planes detected a convoy of armored vehicles. Unable to
see any markings identifying these vehicles as friendly
and not being able to contact the convoy by radio the pilot
directed artillery fire to the coordinates of the convoy.
Later it was discovered that this was a coalition convoy.
Thick layers of dust covered up the identification markings
- colored strips of cloth in the rear of the vehicles.
Electronic jamming made radio contact impossible. First
reports indicated that the US unit lost 50 troops killed
and wounded. At least five armored vehicles have been destroyed,
one of which was an Abrams tank.
During
the past day the coalition losses in this area [ Karabela
and An-Najaf ] were 18-22 killed and up to 40
wounded. Most of the fatalities were sustained due to unexpected
attacks by the Iraqi Special Forces against the coalition
rears and against communication sites. This is a sign of
the increasing diversionary and partisan actions by the
Iraqis.
During the same period of time the Iraqi forces sustained
up to 100 killed, about the same number of wounded and
up to 50 captured.
Since the beginning of the operation no more than 2000
Iraqi troops were captured by the coalition. The majority
of the captured troops were members of regional defense
[militia] units.
The Iraqis were able to move significant reinforcements
to the area of An-Nasiriya making it now extremely difficult
for the Americans to widen their staging areas on the left
bank of the Euphrates. Moreover, the Americans [on the
left bank of the Euphrates] may end up in a very difficult
situation if the Iraqis manage to destroy the bridges and
to separate [these US units] from the main coalition force.
The US forces in this area consist of up to 4,000 Marines
from the 1st Marine Division and supporting units of the
82nd Airborne Division. Currently, fighting has resumed
in the An-Nasiriya suburbs.
During
one of the Iraqi attacks yesterday against the US positions
the Iraqis for the first time employed the "Grad" mobile
multiple rocket launch systems [MLRS]. As the result an
entire US unit was taken out of combat after sustaining
up to 40 killed and wounded as well as losing up to 7 armored
vehicles.
There are no other reports of any losses in this area
[ An-Nasiriya] except for one US Marine drowning in one
of the city's water canals and another Marine being killed
by a sniper.
During the sand storm the coalition command lost contact
with up to 4 coalition reconnaissance groups. Their whereabouts
are being determined. It is still unknown what happened
to more than 600 other coalition troops mainly from resupply,
communications and reconnaissance units communication with
which was lost during the past 24 hours.
The
situation around Basra remains unclear. The Iraqis control
the
city and its suburbs, as well as the area south
of Basra and the part of the adjacent Fao peninsula, which
the British have so far failed to take. The British forces
are blockading Basra from the west and northwest. However,
due to difficult marshy terrain crossed by numerous waterways
the British have been unable to create a single line of
front and to establish a complete blockade of the city.
Currently main combat operations are being launched for
control of a small village near Basra where the local airport
is located. The British field commanders report that there
has been no drop in the combat activity of the Iraqis.
On the contrary, under the cover of the sand storm up to
two battalions of the "surrendered" Iraqi 51st
Infantry Division were moved to the Fao peninsula to support
the local defending forces.
Rumors
about an uprising by the Basra Shiite population turned
out
to be false. Moreover, the Shiite community
leaders called on the local residents to fight the "children
of the Satan" - the Americans and the British.
During the past 24 hours the British sustained no less
than 3 killed and up to 10 wounded due to mortar and sniper
fire.
It is difficult to estimate the Iraqi losses [in Basra]
due to limited available information. However, some reports
suggest that up to 30 Iraqi troops were killed during the
past day by artillery and aircraft fire.
During an attack against a coalition checkpoint in Umm
Qasr last night one British marine infantry soldier was
heavily wounded. This once again points to the tentative
nature of the British claims of control over the town.
Information coming from northern regions of Iraq indicates
that most of the Kurdish leaders chose not to participate
in the US war against Iraq. The primary reason for that
is the mistrust of the Kurds toward the US. Yesterday one
of the Russian intelligence sources obtained information
about a secret agreement reached between the US and the
Turkish government. In the agreement the US, behind the
backs of the Kurds, promised Turkey not to support in any
way a formation of a Kurdish state in this region. The
US has also promised not to prevent Turkey from sending
its troops [ to Northern Kurdistan] immediately following
[the coalition] capture of northern Iraq.
In
essence, this gives Turkey a card-blanche to use force
for a "cleanup" in
Kurdistan. At the same time the Kurdish troops will be
moved to fight the Iraqis outside
of Kurdistan, thus rendering them unable to support their
own people.
Along the border with Kurdistan Turkey has already massed
a 40,000-strong army expeditionary corps that is specializing
in combat operations against the Kurds. This force remains
at a 4-hour readiness to begin combat operations.
All
of this indicates that the coalition command will be
unable to
create a strong "Northern Front" during
the next 3-4 days and that the US Marines and paratroopers
in this area will have to limit their operations to distracting
the Iraqis and to launching reconnaissance missions.
During
a meeting with the Germany's chancellor [ Gerhard ] Schroeder
the
heads of the German military and political
intelligence reported that the US is doing everything possible
to conceal information on the situation in the combat zone
and that the US shows an extremely "unfriendly" attitude.
Germany's own intelligence-gathering capabilities in this
region are very limited. This is the result of Germany,
being true to its obligations as an ally, not attempting
to bolster its national intelligence operations in the
region and not trying to separate its intelligence agencies
from the intelligence structures of NATO and the US.
There has been a confirmation of yesterday's reports about
the plans of the coalition command to increase its forces
fighting in Iraq. The troops of the 4th Infantry Division
(Mechanized) are currently being airlifted to the region,
while its equipment is traveling by sea around the Arabian
Peninsula and the unloading is expected to begin as early
as by the end of tomorrow. The Division numbers 30,000
soldiers and officers. By the end of April up to 120,000
more US troops, up to 500 tanks and up to 300 more helicopters
will be moved to the region.
In addition to that, today the US President [George W]
Bush asked the British Prime-Minister [Tony] Blair to increase
the British military presence in Iraq by a minimum of 15,000-20,000
troops.
At the current level of combat operations and at the current
level of Iraqi resistance the coalition may face a sharp
shortage of troops and weapons within the next 5-7 days,
which will allow the Iraqis to take the initiative. The
White House took this conclusion of the US Joint Chiefs
of Staff with great concern.
During
the past seven days of the war the US Navy detained all
ships
in the Persian Gulf going to Iraq under the US "Oil
for Food" program. Since yesterday all these ships
are being unloaded in Kuwait. Unloaded food is being delivered
by the US military to Iraq and is being distributed as "American
humanitarian aid" and as a part of the "rebuilding
Iraq" program. These US actions have already cause
a serious scandal in the UN. The US explained its actions
by its unilateral decision to freeze all Iraqi financial
assets, including the Iraqi financial assets with the UN.
These assets the US now considers its property and will
exercise full control over them. Captains of the detained
ships have already called these actions by the US a "piracy." (source: iraqwar.ru,
03-27-03, translated by Venik)
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