March 23, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
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March 19,
2003, 0403hrs
MSK (GMT +3), Moscow
- Based on the intercepted US military communications
the Russian military intelligence believes
that the US command is attempting to create a false impression
of a pending massive ground attack on Basra.
Russian
Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) believes that all
the talk about the attack on Basra is nothing
more than disinformation designed compliment a diversionary
strike to pin down large Iraqi forces around this city.
The main thrust
of the US ground
attack, Russian military thinks, will bypass
Basra from the west splitting the Iraqi defenses through
An Nasiriya (population under 500,000) and
Al' Amarah (population under 500,000) at the end
reaching the Hor-Es-Savakiya lake and forming an external
encirclement
facing
Basra.
From An Nasiriya
the invaders will advance along the Euphrates river reaching
the Habbaniyah lake and capturing the city of Al Habbaniyah
(population under 20,000), thus creating a solid front
facing Baghdad from the south
and partially reaching around Baghdad from southwest.
The encircled
Basra forces will be contained using mass air strikes
and ground troops to cut off the Iraqis in Basra from
their main forces. The US command believes that the air
bombardment will weaken and disorganize the Basra defenders
and allow the US ground troops to further split these
Iraqi forces into smaller pockets of resistance.
During these
operations the US command plans to rely to a large extent
on tactical airborne units dropped immediately behind
the forward lines of Iraqi defenses to disorganize and
to demoralize them, as well as to capture pockets of
territory and hold them until the arrival of the main
forces. A particularly important role in these operations
will be played by combat aviation as the primary means
of supporting ground troops and containing the enemy.
Already around
30 diversionary and reconnaissance units have been airdropped
in Iraq by the US and Britain. Their primary task of
these forces is provide targeting information for the
upcoming initial waves of air strikes. Available information
suggests
that the first air strike may take place as early as
Thursday morning 1.5-2 hours before the end of Washington's
ultimatum. However, the sand storm currently raging over
Iraq may force the US command to delay the planned attack
by one or two days.
(source: iraqwar.ru,
03-19-03, translated by Venik)
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