March 22, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
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March
21, 2002, 0930hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - In the course
of yesterday’s US military command meeting on Iraq the
primary
topic
of discussion was the unexpected tactics adopted by the
Iraqi forces. The coalition aircraft over Iraq encountered
a huge number of various kinds of target mockups and
other decoys on the ground. Thus, for example, after
the post-strike aerial reconnaissance mission of an Iraqi
airbase near Basra it was determined that all of the
20 Iraqi aircraft reported earlier by the coalition pilots
as being destroyed in the bombing turned out to be aircraft
mockups. Additionally, nearly all Iraqi radars discovered
earlier have ceased transmission and relocated to new
positions. As the result, every third coalition aircraft
designated for the role of suppressing Iraqi air defenses
returned to base with its full combat load unused. The
pilots report that there is no way to know if the weapons
released against the Iraqi air defenses hit the real
targets or just more decoys. “…We engaged everything
that looked like a radar. But there is no way in hell
we can know what it really was!” – reported one of the
coalition pilots back to ground control after releasing
missiles against a suspected Iraqi radar site.
A particular point of concern for the coalition air force
commander is the fact that after the first 24 hours of
the bombing campaign by the coalition aircraft Iraq is
yet to launch a single air-to-surface missile. Coalition
aerial, electronic and satellite reconnaissance forces
are being urged to determine the locations and composition
of the Iraqi air defenses in the next 16 hours.
The sources insist that the elements of the 3rd infantry
division were purposefully provoked into fighting by the
Iraqi mobile units, which from the first hours of the ground
campaign used the “pinprick” tactics by launching more
than 20 artillery attacks against the positions of the
coalition forces. To prevent further such attacks the coalition
command ordered its troops to pursue all attacking Iraqi
units.
The
GRU GSh RF radio intercept units reported that during
one of such pursuits the Americans lost one of their helicopters.
Following the loss of this helicopter Russian reconnaissance
detected the take-off of a US search-and-rescue helicopter.
This was at least a third helicopter lost by the coalition
during the first 24 hours of fighting. As the result of
the hit-and-run tactics employed by the Iraqis almost the
entire 3rd infantry division was pulled inside Iraq and
spent the day by conducting reconnaissance missions and
exchanging fire with the Iraqis 20-60 kilometers from the
Kuwaiti border. To protect the flanks of the division the
US command was forced to begin the operation to encircle
Basra an by 1900hrs the coalition ground forces (possibly
the US Army III Corps which includes the 4th Infantry
Div. Mech.
and
the 1st Cavalry Div., aided by the 1st Marine Div. (1)
begun advancing with one part of their forces encircling
Basra
from the west, while the part moved in the direction of
Baghdad. This maneuver was predicted by the Russian intelligence
even before the war started.
By sunrise the 1st armored division was forced to stop
their advance after encountering a minefield. According
to the intercepted radio communications, mines destroyed
some two US armored vehicles.
Additionally, at 0730hrs forward Marine units walked into
an ambush and called in air support and medevac helicopters.
Based on the intercepted radio communications Russian military
intelligence believes that the Marines have encountered
one the Iraqi mobile units. Currently this area is being
bombarded by the US aviation.
The US command is disappointed with its psychological
campaign designed to damage the morale of the Iraqi troops.
So far there were no mass surrendering of Iraqi troops.
During the first day of the war only a few dozen Iraqi
soldiers have surrendered. These soldiers came mainly from
the border checkpoints and border patrol units. Reports
by the majority of the US field commanders show that they
do not see any confusion or any loss of control on the
part of the Iraqi forces.
So far the weak bombing attacks against Baghdad and other
large Iraqi cities, analysts believe, are due to the continuing
hopes by the US command that the planned coup against Saddam
Hussein would finally materialize. The bombing campaign
is being restricted to avoid heavy civilian casualties
and provide the coup organizers with more favorable conditions
in the cities. However, a step-up in the intensity of the
bombing campaign against the Iraqi cities should be expected
by the end of the day today, as the hope for a coup against
the Iraqi president fades.
At lest two of the eight supposedly Iraqi missiles that
hit Kuwait turned out to be US sea-launched cruise missiles
that strayed off course. This can be clearly seen even
from the craters left in the ground by the explosions of
these missiles. After detonation the “Scud” warhead leaves
a crater as much as 8 meters deep. What was observed in
Kuwait, however, is the typical crater left by the detonation
of a cruise missile’s warhead. The story with the rest
of the Iraqi missile launches is also unclear. Experts
are leaning toward a possibility that the explosions in
the Kuwaiti border regions were caused not by missiles
but by 120-mm mortar shells fired by the Iraqi mobile units.
The British troops failed to quickly capture the Fao peninsula.
Once they landed on the peninsula they were hit with a
heavy artillery barrage and held down near the shoreline.
Only after the requested aviation support has arrived the
British were able to advance 3-5 kilometers inland. During
this operation, according to the intercepted radio communications,
the British have suffered some casualties and called for
medevac helicopters. Russian intelligence reports that
the peninsula is being defended by up to two Iraqi regiments
and by the armed civilians from the local population supported
by several artillery battalions. Currently the British
and the US forces are attempting to prevent the defending
Iraqi forces at Fao peninsula from retreating toward Basra.
The coalition casualties during the first day of war numbered
23, as war reported to the US Secretary of Defense by the
coalition commander Gen. Franks. However, during the next
12 hours the casualties are likely to grow to 40 killed
and over a hundred wounded. At the moment the exact coalition
casualty figures are difficult to determine due to the
continuing evacuation of wounded from the Fao peninsula,
the Basra region, and from the battlefield 70 km from the
Kuwaiti border.
The first day of ground combat confirms the conclusion
that the Iraqi command is organizing defenses in the central
regions of the country. All main Iraqi forces have been
pulled toward central Iraq leaving huge mine fields and
many ambushes on the path of the advancing US forces.
The defense of Basra is carried out by the part of the
Iraqi 4th Army Corp. and volunteer brigades formed by the
resident of Basra. It is believed that the Iraqi command
is not counting on preventing the US forces from taking
Basra but is simply trying to inflict as many casualties
on the coalition forces as possible.
The main battles of this war may begin as early as by
the end of tomorrow, when the US forces reach central Iraq. (source: iraqwar.ru,
03-21-03, translated by Venik)
Footnotes:
-
The
4th Infantry Div. Mech. and the 1st Cavalry Div.
are reported
to be still located at their home base at Fort
Hood, TX, so their participation in this operation
seems
to be out of the question. Their equipment was shipped
to Turkey but could not be unloaded
due
to
Turkey's
refusal
to
accept
US troops. This equipment is still at sea now for
the sixth week and both divisions are in TX. The
4th
Infantry
Division was to take part in the Northern Front
against Iraq coming from Turkey. It was also reported
that
the 1st Cavalry Div. will be deployed to Iraq but
only sometime in May. [Venik]
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