March 23, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian Army Main Intelligence
Directorate (GRU) information.
[ < previous
report | next report > ]
March 17,
2003, 1848hrs
MSK (GMT +3), Moscow
- During the March 14, 2002, emergency meeting the top
[Russian] military commanders discussed
the situation around Iraq. Reports were presented by
the chief of Main Intelligence Directorate of the General
Staff (GRU GSh) Col. Gen. Valentine
Korabelnikov and the chief of Main Tactical Directorate
of the General
Staff (GOU GSh) Col. Gen. Alexander Rukshin. The GRU
report contained information of the strength and composition
of the US forces and its allies as well as strength and
composition of the Iraqi forces.
According
to Col. Gen. Korabelnikov beginning at 1200 on Friday
March 14 US forces operate in the high combat readiness
state and are capable of initiating combat operations
3-4 hours after they receive orders to such effect. All
necessary combat orders have been delivered to all levels
of command structure down to the battalion level commanders.
The GRU chief
reported that due to the current international situation
it is unlikely that the US will seek a vote in the UN
Security Council on the new Iraq resolution. Doing so
will inevitably lead to a failure to gain necessary support,
which is most undesirable for the US. Therefore, the
Bush administration will prefer to act using the previous
UN resolution as an excuse for starting the war.
It seems likely
that the combat operations will begin on 19-22 of March
at around 2-4 am local time.
In connection
with these developments the GRU and General Staff departments
responsible for the Persian Gulf region will go to a
24-hour mode of operation. All [Russian] electronic reconnaissance
brigades and divisions, intelligence agencies based in
regions neighboring the conflict zone, sea- and space-based
technical reconnaissance assets will be put on full combat
alert.
The GOU GSh
report provided an analysis of the Iraqi army's defensive
capabilities and possible scenarios of the war.
The first
phase of the operation will consist of a strategic air
operation which, according to the US command, will last
between 8 and 10 days. The goal of this operation will
be complete suppression of Iraqi air defenses, disruption
of command and control structures, destruction of main
command and communication centers, disruption of the
main Iraqi forces, destruction of the military infrastructure
and defense industry facilities.
The first
wave of the attack will consist of between 200-250 Tomahawk
cruise missiles followed in 30-50 minutes by an aircraft
strike. The initial air attack will last up to six hours.
It will consist of around 2000 combat flights and the
launch of around 400 cruise missiles. During the next
five days it is planned to deliver at least two major
air strikes per day with a gradual shift toward sustain
air operations against newly discovered targets.
After the
first phase of the operation is complete the US command
plans to spend two more days for additional reconnaissance
and destruction of any new or remaining targets. After
this the available air assets will switched entirely
to support the ground forces. The total time for the
operation against Iraq is estimated by the US military
planners to run between 15 and 21 days.
According
to Col. Gen. Rukshin it is unlikely that the first phase
of the US attack will be able to achieve its goals and
destroy most of the main Iraqi forces. This stage of
the operation is likely to take between three week and
one-and-a-half months. During that time the US command
will put an emphasis on the destruction of Iraq's top
political and military leadership, including Saddam Hussein.
For this purpose the US plans to use high-power aviation
bombs capable of penetrating reinforced underground facilities
at great depth. Additionally, for the first time the
US plans to use tactical airborne troops and special
forces against Iraq's military and political command
sites.
GOU GSh finds
it possible that the military campaign against Iraq will
be considerably more difficult than expected by the US
military planners. The US troops may encounter determined
resistance from the Iraqi forces, which may lead to the
slow down and even complete halt of the attack and will
force the US to resume the mass bombing campaign. This
will inevitably prolong the war into the 2-3-month timeframe
and possibly longer.
(source: iraqwar.ru,
03-17-03, translated by Venik)
[ < previous
report | next report > ]

|