March 23, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
[ < previous
report | next report > ]
March
23, 2003, 1200hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - The situation
in southern Iraq can be characterized as unstable and
controversial. Heavy fighting is taking place in the
Umm-Qasr-An-Nasiriya-Basra triangle. Satellite and signals
intelligence show that both sides actively employ armored
vehicles in highly mobile attacks and counterattacks.
Additionally, fighting is continuing near the town of
An-Najaf.
As
of this morning the Iraqi defenses along the Basra -
An-Nasiriya - An-Najaf line are holding.
Following
the yesterday's Iraqi counter strike near An-Nasiriya
the US command was forced to halt the advance of its
troops toward An-Najaf and to redirect a portion of available
tank forces to cover the flanks of the 3rd Motorized
Infantry Division attacked by the Iraqis. By late evening
yesterday constant air strikes and increasing strength
of American tank attacks forced the Iraqis to withdraw
their troops back to eastern parts of Nasiriya, across
the Euphrates river, were they assumed defensive positions
along the river bank.
During
the last day of fighting the Iraqis lost up to 20 tanks,
up to 2 artillery batteries, and around 100 troops.
Yesterday's
US losses are estimated at 10 destroyed or disabled
tanks, several armored personnel carriers and up to 15
troops
killed in action.
By
0700hrs MSK today the fighting at Nasiriya stopped. Currently
both sides are rushing to regroup their forces and to
get
them ready for more fighting in this area.
Near
Basra the advance of the coalition forces came to a complete
halt at the near approaches to the western and southwestern
outskirts of the city. The US and British forces are
rushing to settle into defensive positions after failing
to surround Basra. Eastern and northern approaches to
Basra remain open and under control of the Iraqi forces.
More
controversial reports are coming in from the town of
Umm-Qasr. As early as three days ago the US command has
declared
that the coalition forces have captured this small port
town and the adjacent oil terminal. However, throughout
these three days heavy fighting continued in the town
and in the suburbs. The US forces are still unable
to break the defense put up by the Iraqi 45th brigade
defending the town.
Moreover,
several counterattacks by the Iraqi forces at Umm Qasr
have pushed the US forces out of some part of the town.
During last night the Iraqi 45th brigade was reinforced
by a special tank battalion of the 51st Infantry Division.
The reinforcement included up to 600 troops and 10 tanks.
However, the coalition forces were also strengthened
overnight with two tank battalions and self-propelled
artillery. As of 1000hrs MSK this morning heavy fighting
continues at Umm Qasr.
According
to intercepted radio communications, the British marine
infantry units in defensive positions on the Fao peninsula
have requested emergency air and artillery support after
being attacked by superior Iraqi forces. So far it is
not clear whether this was an actual counterattack by
the Iraqis or just a nuisance attack. The British commanders
report that their positions are being attacked by up
to a regiment of infantry supported by tanks.
Other
intercepted radio traffic suggests that, as the British
and US forces bend the Basra - An-Najaf line of defense,
the Iraqi command will pull back its main forces to the
Al-Ammara - Ad-Divaniya line. Already most of the Iraqi
forces in this region have moved to the Al-Ammara - Ad-Divaniya
positions and within the next 48 hours defense of Basra
and Fao peninsula will be reduced to just the local units
and garrisons. The goal of the remaining forces will
be to tie up superior coalition forces in these areas.
According
to radio intercepts during today's night the coalition
begun airdropping troops in northern Iraq from airfields
in Turkey and Jordan. These forces are being used to
form mobile strike groups in northern Kurdistan and near
the western-Iraqi town of Er-Rutbah. Already up to 5,000
coalition troops have been delivered to northern Kurdistan
and up to 1000 paratroopers have landed near Er-Rutbah.
Russian
military intelligence has uncovered a range of facts
pointing to a separate arrangement between the top leadership
of Jordan and the US military command. Officially Jordan
has declared its neutrality in the war against Iraq
and refused to provide its airspace to the coalition
aviation. However, at the same time Jordan has allowed
the anti-Iraq coalition to place surveillance radars
and radio reconnaissance stations on its territory. Jordan
has also allowed the coalition to use its military airbases.
Available
information indicates that coalition special ops units,
including up to 400 troops and their command headquarters,
have been deployed to the Jordanian Zarka military base
and
to
the home
base
of
the Jordan's 71st special ops brigade.
Reports
that have surfaced in the media in the past 12 hours
about the capture of a US special ops unit near Baghdad
are
probably not true. It is likely that these reports refer
to the capture of coalition paratroopers yesterday morning
near the town of Akashat.
During
the past 12 hours there
has been a drop in intensity of air strikes against Baghdad.
Analysts attribute this to the fact that most of available
coalition air assets are now deployed in support of ground
forces. Intercepted coalition radio traffic shows that
most of the bombing attacks against Baghdad are carried
out by the US strategic aviation and by sea-launched
long-range cruise missiles.
So
far the US was unable to destroy the air defense
networks in central Iraq. As before, the Iraqis continue
to covertly use their radars and SAM launchers on a limited
bases while employing a huge number of decoys designed
to imitate radars.
The
US was also unable to disrupt the central control over
the Iraqi army. The US command is forced to admit that,
despite the best efforts of the coalition aviation,
the Iraqi forces maintain high combat readiness and
reliable command and control structure.
[Russian]
radio intercept units have reported the loss of two coalition
planes. One of the planes was a "Tornado" strike
aircraft and the other one was believed to be an F-16
fighter-bomber.
The F-16 was shot down over Baghdad and is believed to
have crash-landed in a desert in southern Iraq. A coalition
search-and-resque unit was immediately dispatched to
this area.
A
CIA referent in the combat area Col. Davis (likely to
be a pseudonym) and the US DoD
Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) regional director were
demoted due to their inadequate performance in estimating
the strength of Iraq's forces and their
combat readiness.
Eyewitnesses
report that Gen. Tommy Franks looks extremely exhausted
and irritated. Gen. Franks has cancelled the meeting
with journalists planned for this morning.
Work
is paralyzed at the coalition press-center in Kuwait.
Journalists are not able to get any information except
for the hourly press communique from the command. A variety
of reasons are cited by the military to reduce the number
of trips into the combat zone for the journalists. All
reports coming from the journalists attached to the coalition
units are now being strictly censored by the military.
All live broadcasts, as those seen during the first day
of the war, are now strictly prohibited by a special
order from the coalition command. The required time delay
between the time news video footage was shot and the
time it can be broadcast has been
increased to a minimum of 4 hours.
More
accurate information became available regarding the losses
sustained by both sides during the first three days of
the war. The coalition has officially acknowledged the
deaths of some 25 servicemen. However, intercepted radio
communications
show that the actual number of coalition casualties
is at least 55-70 troops killed and no less than 200
wounded. The emergency dispatch of the "Comfort" medical
ship closer to the combat zone is a direct indication
of serious casualties. The "Comfort" is expected
to arrive to the southern tip of the Fao peninsula later
tonight.
It
is more difficult to evaluate the losses of the Iraqi
especially due to the air strikes. On the south front
Iraqi losses are estimated at 400-600 killed, 1,500 wounded
and up to 300 captured. (source: iraqwar.ru,
03-23-03, translated by Venik)
[ < previous
report | next report > ]

|