March 22, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
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March
20, 2002, 1015hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - The sand storm
raging over Iraq is seriously interfering with the US
plans for the first
air strike. So far the US Air Force was unable to launch
any large-scale bombing raids against the positions of
the Iraqi forces along the line of contact in southern
Iraq. A sand cloud is covering the Iraqi positions and
air strikes were carried out by the US only using cruise
missile and only against well-known stationary targets.
Main air strikes are currently being carried out against
the Iraqi positions in the vicinity of Basra. According
to Russian radio intercepts of US military communications
some 40 cruise missile launches and 200 combat flights
were carried out by the US during the first 6 hours of
the war against Iraq.
The US command is troubled by the news of the withdrawal
of the Iraqi Republican Guard division from Basra region.
Available information suggests that the defense of Basra
will be carried out only by the regional defense units
and by the Basra garrison, which numbers some 30,000 soldiers
and officers, about 200 T-55 and T-62 tanks and up to 300
pieces of artillery. This points to a possibility that
the Iraqi command is not concentrating on strong defense
of the border regions but, instead, withdrawing its most
combat-capable units deeper inside the country.
Military command of the anti-Iraq coalition demanded from
its air forces an immediate increase in the intensity of
air strikes. At the same time the Coalition is in a rush
to process all the recon information obtained during the
initial air strikes. Aerial and satellite reconnaissance
forces of the Coalition are concentrating on detecting
Iraqi air defenses as well as command and control facilities
used by the Iraqis to deflect the first wave of air strikes.
Based on radio intercepts, several US combat units deployed
in the demilitarized zone were bombarded by Iraqi artillery
around 0730hrs Moscow time. American commanders requested
emergency artillery and air support. Up to five USAF planes
were forced to return back to their bases after suffering
onboard equipment failures. At 0950hrs Moscow time one
of the helicopters of the US 101st airborne division crashed
due to low visibility conditions. So far there is no information
about casualties in this crash.
In the next 24 hours Americans are anticipating news of
“sharp political changes” in Iraq. Analysts believe that
an overthrow plot against Saddam Hussein prepared by the
CIA during the past few months is the reason behind such
expectations. However, Russian agents are reporting that
this plot was either uncovered in time or was under control
of the Iraqi security agencies from the very beginning.
This information is confirmed by a certain air of unease
within the CIA command center in Qatar, as the expected
overthrow of Hussein was supposed to take place several
days ago.
According to the information received from Baghdad, the
US air strikes directed against the Iraqi leadership did
not acheive their goals. Saddam Hussein and all key members
of his cabinet are alive and distributed across several
different locations. It is likely that Iraq’s political
and military leadership will be organized in accordance
with the so-called “network” principle, originally implemented
in Iraq in 1991 and later adopted by Yugoslavia in 1999.
Iraqi political and military leadership will be constantly
moving across a network of bunkers and other secure locations,
conducting all communications using only secure lines and
refraining from concentrating in one place more than two
key leaders.
Information obtained by the radio intercept units of the
Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces
(GRU VS RF) shows that the majority of the Iraqi air defenses
did not take part in the deflection of the initial US air
strike. Not a single surface-to-air missile was launched
during this first wave of strikes. Moreover, immediately
following the initial air raid alert all Iraqi radars with
known positions ceased operation and over 300 decoy radar
transmitters were engaged. This indicates that the Iraqi
command is relying on preserving as many of its air defense
assets as possible and that it is preparing for long-term
conflict. At the same time at least four cruise missiles
were shot down by anti-aircraft artillery fire.
In an emergency phone conversation with the President
of the United States George Bush the British Prime Minister
Tony Blair expressed his strong disappointment with the
fact that the British military and political leadership
was informed about the planned start of the combat operations
just 20 minutes before the first air strike. Blair called
this decision by Bush “unfriendly” and characterized the
US actions as a breach of trust between the two allies.
All of this gives a double meaning to the role of Britain
in the military partnership with the US, especially against
the background of a major internal split in the ruling
political coalition in the UK.
Update:
The
US military confirms the loss of an MH-53J Pave Low special
operations helicopter in southern Iraq. IraqWar.Ru was
the first to report the loss yesterday. The US military
officials have refused to specify the exact location
of the crash
or the exact number of personnel aboard the helicopter
in addition to the standard crew of six. The helicopter
is capable of transporting of up to 38 troops. The MH-53J
that crash landed in southern Iraq was later destroyed
by the US forces to avoid its capture by the Iraqi forces.
(source: iraqwar.ru,
03-20-03, translated by Venik)
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