March 25, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
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March
25, 2003, 1230hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - As
of the morning March 25 the situation on Iraqi fronts
remains quiet. Both sides are actively preparing for
future engagements.
Exhausted in combat the US 3rd Motorized Infantry Division
is now being reinforced with fresh units from Kuwait (presumably
with up to 1 Marine brigade and 1 tank brigade from the
1st Armored Division (all coming from the coalition command
reserves) and elements of the British 7th Tank Brigade
from the area of Umm Qasr. The troops have a stringent
requirement to regroup and, after conducting additional
reconnaissance, to capture An-Nasiriya within two days.
The Iraqis have reinforced the An-Nasiriya garrison with
several artillery battalions and a large number of anti-tank
weapons. Additionally, the Iraqis are actively deploying
landmines along the approaches to their positions.
However,
currently all combat has nearly ceased due to the sand
storm raging over the region. Weather forecasts
anticipate the storm's end by noon of March 26. According
to intercepted radio communications the coalition advance
will be tied to the end of the sand storm and is planned
to take place during the night of March 26-27. The coalition
command believes that a night attack will allow its
forces to achieve the element of surprise and to use its
advantage in specialized night fighting equipment.
There have been no reports of any losses resulting from
direct combat in the past 10 hours. However, there is information
about two coalition combat vehicles destroyed by landmines.
Three US soldiers were wounded in one of these incidents.
Positional
warfare continues near Basra. The coalition forces in
this area are clearly insufficient for continuing
the attack and the main emphasis is being placed on artillery
and aviation. The city is under constant bombardment but
so far this had little impact on the combat readiness of
the Iraqi units. Thus, last night an Iraqi battalion reinforced
with tanks swung around the coalition positions in the
area of Basra airport and attacked the coalition forces
in the flanks. As the result of this attack the US forces
have been thrown back 1.5-2 kilometers leaving the airport
and the nearby structures in the hands of the Iraqis. Two
APCs and one tank were destroyed in this encounter. According
to radio intelligence at least two US soldiers were killed
and no less than six US soldiers were wounded.
The coalition forces are still unable to completely capture
the small town of Umm Qasr. By the end of yesterday coalition
units were controlling only the strategic roads going through
the town, but fierce fighting continued in the residential
districts. At least two British servicemen were killed
by sniper fire in Umm Qasr during the past 24 hours.
The
coalition command is extremely concerned with growing
resistance movement in the rear of the advancing forces.
During a meeting at the coalition command headquarters
it was reported that up to 20 Iraqi reconnaissance units
are active behind the coalition rear. The Iraqis attack
lightly armed supply units; they deploy landmines and conduct
reconnaissance. Additionally, captured villages have active
armed resistance that is conducting reconnaissance in the
interests of the Iraqi command and is organizing attacks
against coalition troops. During the past 24 hours more
than 30 coalition wheeled and armored vehicles have been
lost to such attacks. Some 7 coalition servicemen are missing,
3 soldiers are dead and 10 are wounded.
The
coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks ordered his forces
to clear coalition rears from Iraqi diversionary
units and partisans in the shortest possible time. The
British side will be responsible for fulfilling these orders.
A unit from the 22nd SAS regiment supported by the US 1st,
5th and 10th Special Operations Groups will carry out this
operation. Each of these groups has up to 12 units numbering
12-15 troops each. All of these units have some Asian or
Arabic Americans. The groups also have guides and translators
from among local Iraqi collaborators, who went through
rapid training at specialized centers in the Czech Republic
and in the UK.
The
sand storms turned out to be the main enemy of the American
military equipment. Just the 3rd Motorized Infantry
Division had more than 100 vehicles disabled.
This is causing
serious concern on the part of the coalition command. The
repair crews are working around the clock to return all
the disabled equipment back into service. The
M1A2 Abrams tanks are not known for the their reliable
engines as it is, but in the sand storm conditions multiple
breakdowns became a real problem for the tank crews.
All
attempts by the US paratroopers to capture the town of
Kirkuk have yielded no result. The Americans counted
on the support of the Kurds but the latter refused to take
a direct part in the attack and demanded guarantees from
the US command that it will prevent a Turkish invasion.
The Turkish themselves are avoiding making any promises.
Additionally, the situation [at Kirkuk] is affected by
the lack of heavy weapons on the part of the US paratroopers.
The aviation support alone is clearly not sufficient. The
northern group of forces commander Marine Brig. Gen. Osman
has requested artillery and armored vehicles.
All indications are that so far the US is unable to form
a combat-capable strike force in this area.
According to satellite reconnaissance it seems likely
that the Iraqis had time to remove the captured Apache
Longbow attack helicopter of the 11th Aviation Regiment.
The pieces remaining at the landing site following a US
bombing strike indicate that the bombs hit a crudely constructed
mockup.
Aerial
bombardment of Baghdad has so far failed to produce the
expected results. All targets designated before the
war have been hit 3 to 7 times, but this had almost no
effect on the combat readiness of the Iraqi army, their
air defenses or the command and control structures.
It
seems that during preparation for the war the Iraqis
were able to create new, well-protected communication
lines
and control centers. There is plenty of intelligence information
indicating that so far the US electronic reconnaissance
was unable to locate and to penetrate the Iraqi command's
communication network, which is an indication of the
network's high technological sophistication.
A
particular point of concern for the US command is the
huge overuse
of precision-guided munitions and cruise missiles.
Already the supply of heavy cruise missiles like the "Tomahawk" has
been reduced by a third and, at the current rate of use,
in three weeks the US will be left only with the untouchable
strategic supply of these missiles. A similar situation
exists with other types of precision-guided munitions. "The
rate of their use is incompatible with the obtained results.
We are literally dropping gold into the mud!" said
Gen. Richard Mayers during a meeting in Pentagon yesterday
morning. [reverse translation from Russian]
The
US experts already call this war a "crisis". "It
was enough for the enemy to show a little resistance and
some creative thinking as our technological superiority
begun to quickly lose all its meaning. Our expenses are
not justified by the obtained results. The enemy is using
an order of magnitude cheaper weapons to reach the same
goals for which we spend billions on technological whims
of the defense industry!" said Gen. Stanley McCrystal
during the same Pentagon meeting. [reverse translation
from Russian]
Since the early
morning today the coalition high command and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are in an online conference
joined by the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. This
meeting immediately follows an earlier meeting last night
at the White House. During the night meeting with President
Bush emergency actions were outlined to resolve the standstill
in Iraq. The existing course of actions is viewed as "ineffective
and leading to a crisis". The Secretary of State Collin
Powell warned that, if the war in Iraq continues for more
than a month, it might lead to unpredictable consequences
in international politics.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard
Mayers reported on the proposed actions and corrections
to the plan of the operation in Iraq. George Bush demanded
that the military breaks the standstill in Iraq and within
a week achieves significant military progress. A particular
attention, according to Bush, should be paid to finding
and eliminating the top Iraqi political and military leadership.
Bush believes that Saddam Hussein and his closest aides
are the cornerstone of the Iraqi defense.
During today's online meeting at the coalition headquarters
Gen. Franks was criticized for inefficient command of his
troops and for his inability to concentrate available forces
on the main tasks.
According to [Russian military] intelligence Pentagon
made a decision to significantly reinforce the coalition.
During the next two weeks up to 50,000 troops and no less
than 500 tanks will arrive to the combat area from the
US military bases in Germany and Albania. By the end of
April 120,000 more troops and up to 1,200 additional tanks
will be sent to support the war against Iraq.
A decision was
made to change the way aviation is used in this war.
The use of precision-guided munitions will
be scaled down and these weapons will be reserved for attacking
only known, confirmed targets. There will be an increase
in the use of conventional high-yield aviation bombs, volume-detonation
bombs and incendiary munitions. The USAF command is ordered
to deliver to airbases used against Iraq a two-week supply
of aviation bombs of 1-tonn caliber and higher as well
as volume-detonation and incendiary bombs. This means that
Washington is resorting to the "scorched earth" tactics
and carpet-bombing campaign.
(source: iraqwar.ru,
03-25-03, translated by Venik)
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