March 30, 2003, 2042hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow -
No significant changes have been reported during March
29-30 on the Iraqi-US front. Positional combat, sporadic
exchange of fire and active search and reconnaissance operations
by both sides continue along the entire line of the front.
American troops continue massing near Karabela. As was
mentioned in the previous update, the US group of forces
in this area numbers up to 30,000 troops, up to 200 tanks
and up to 230 helicopters. Latest photos of this area suggest
that the [US] troops are busy servicing and repairing their
equipment and setting up the support infrastructure.
According to radio intercepts, the coalition commander
Gen. Tommy Franks has visited the US forces near Karabela.
He personally inspected the troops and had a meeting with
the unit commanders. Currently no information is available
about the topics discussed during the meeting. However,
it is believed that the [coalition] commander listened
to the reports prepared by the field commanders and formulated
the main objectives for the next 2-3 days.
The current technical shape of the coalition forces was
discussed during the meeting at the coalition central headquarters.
During a personal phone conversation with another serviceman
in the US one participant of this meeting called this technical
state "depressing". According to him "...a
third of our equipment can be dragged to a junk yard right
now. We are holding up only thanks to the round-the-clock
maintenance. The real heroes on the front lines are not
the Marines but the "ants" from the repair units.
If it wasn't for them we'd be riding camels by now..." [Reverse-translated
from Russian]
Based on the intercepted radio communications, reports
from both sides and other intelligence data, since the
beginning of the war the coalition lost 15-20 tanks, around
40 armored
personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, more
than 50 military trucks and up to 10 helicopters. In addition
to that there have been at least 40 more disabled tanks,
about the same number of disabled APCs and IFVs, about
100 disabled wheeled vehicles of all types and around 40
disabled helicopters. These numbers are based on the analysis
of non-classified technical reports received daily by
the Pentagon.
During the attack last night up to two US Marine battalions
attempted to push the Iraqis out of their defensive positions
near An-Najaf. Despite of the preliminary 4-hour-long artillery
and aerial bombardment once they approached the Iraqi positions
the US troops were met with heavy machine-gun and RPG fire
and were forced to return to their original positions.
One US tanks was destroyed by a landmine and two APCs were
hit during this night attack. Radio intercepts show that
2 Marines were killed and 5 were wounded. The latest attempt
by the US troops to improve their positions on the left
bank of the Euphrates near An-Nasiriya was also a failure.
Despite of all the precautions taken to ensure the tactical
surprise the US forces were met with heavy fire and returned
to the original positions. According to the reports by
the [US] field commanders, three Marines were missing in
action
and four were wounded in this engagement.
These failed attacked have once again confirmed the fears
of the coalition command that the Iraqi forces were much
better technically equipped than was believed before the
war. In particular, the DIA [US Defense Intelligence Agency]
intelligence report from February 2003 insisted that the
Iraqi army practically had no night vision equipment except
for those systems installed on some tanks and serviceability
of even that equipment was questioned. In reality, however,
the coalition troops have learned that the Iraqis have
an adequate number of night vision surveillance systems
and targeting sights even at the squadron level and they
know how to properly use this equipment. A particular point
of concern [for the coalition] is the fact that most Iraqi
night vision systems captured
by the coalition are the latest models manufactured in
the US and Japan. After analyzing the origins of this equipment
the US begun talking about the "Syrian connection".
In this regard, the US military experts have analyzed Syria's
weapons imports for the past two years and have concluded
that in the future fighting [in Iraq] the coalition troops
may have to deal with the latest Russian-made anti-tank
systems, latest radars and radio reconnaissance systems
resistant to the effects electronic counter measures.
In the same area [An-Najaf] a coalition checkpoint manned
by the US Marines was attacked by a suicide bomber - an
Iraqi soldier - who detonated a passenger car loaded with
explosives next to the US troops. At least 5 of them
were killed.
In a closed radio address to the coalition troops the
coalition command asked the soldiers to show "patience
and restrain" and "not to let loose their emotions
and feelings of anger" [Reverse-translated from Russian]
The radio address was recorded following an incident in
the area of Umm Qasr when, in plain view of the locals,
British soldiers executed two Iraqis after finding a submachine-gun
in their house; and after a US attack helicopter returning
from a combat mission opened cannon fire on a passenger
car and its occupants. It was announced [by the coalition]
that both of these incidents will be investigated. However,
military psychologists believe that these incidents are
the result of the troops being subjected to enormous stress;
psychologists say that these soldiers require medical treatment.
Near Basra the British forces have completely abandoned
offensive operations and switched to positional warfare.
Isolated attacks continue in the airport area - still not
under
full British control - and on the Fao peninsula where the
Iraqis continue to hold a large staging area.
According to the British field commanders, the troops
are extremely exhausted and are in dare need of rest and
reinforcements. Three British soldiers went missing and
two more were wounded in this area during the past 24 hours.
A supply convoy of the 3rd Motorized Infantry Division
was ambushed last night to the south of An-Nasiriya. In
the course of the attack 10 fuel trucks were destroyed,
one escorting APC was hit, 8 troops were wounded and 1
is missing. So far it is not known who was behind the attack:
the Iraqi army combat reconnaissance units or the partisans
operating in this area.
Analysis of the information coming from the combat zone
shows a rapid decline in the [coalition's] contacts with
the media and increasing restrictions on all information
except for the official reports. For example, since yesterday
morning
all phone and Internet lines used by the coalition troops
to maintain contact with relatives in the US and Europe
have been shut down at the division level and below. Not
only does this indicate that the coalition command is trying
to change the course of the information war, but this also
points to a possible upcoming massive coalition attack
against the Iraqi forces and an attempt on the part of
the [coalition]
commanders to prevent any information leaks.
[Russian] analysts believe that all the talk about a "two-week
timeout" in the war is nothing more than a disinformation
attempt by the coalition. Forces and equipment currently
available to the coalition will be sufficient for at least
1-2 weeks of active combat; this is comparable to the duration
of a major combat operation. It is likely that such an
operation may take place during the next day in the area
of Karabela. Goals of this operations have already been
discussed in previous reports.
At the same time the coalition is already planning a new
large-scale operation that will utilize the new forces
currently being deployed to the region. Based on our [Russian]
intelligence and that of our allies [Russian] military
experts believe that this large-scale operation will be
launched from the general vicinity of Karabela and will
develop into a wide maneuver around Baghdad from the west
ending in the area of the Tartar lake east of Al-Hadid
(or east
of the Tartar lake at Samarrah). From this point a part
of the force will continue advancing toward Saddam Hussein's
home town of Tikrit and from there it will turn toward
Baghdad from the north through Samarrah and Baahkuba; meanwhile
the rest of the [coalition] force will strike the rears
of the Iraqi forces fighting in the north near Kirkuk and
Mosul. Such an operation would require up to 60,000 troops,
no less than 300 tanks and 200 helicopters. It is believed
that such forces can be put together by April 15 and by
April 18 they should be ready to attack.
Certain available information points to a serious conflict
between the coalition command and the US political and
military leadership. The [US] Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld - the main planner and lobbyist of the military
operation against Iraq - accuses the coalition command
and Gen. Tommy Franks personally of being passive and indecisive,
which [in Rumsfeld's opinion] led to the lengthening of
the conflict and the current dead end situation. In his
turn Franks in front of his subordinates calls the Secretary
of Defense the "old blabbermouth" and an "adventurist" who
dragged the army into the war on the most unfavorable terms
possible. However, most [US military] officers believe
that both military leaders are responsible for the coalition's
military
failures. Rumsfeld allowed gross errors during the planning
of forces and equipment required for the war, while Franks
did not show enough strength to get the right forces and
the right training for the troops in this campaign and,
in essence, surrendered to the whims of the politicians...
It is entirely possible that the future of this war will
see the departure of one of these two commanders. Some
reports suggest that Rumsfeld has already proposed to President
Bush a change in the coalition command. However, Bush declined
this proposal calling it untimely and damaging to the morale
of the troops and that of the American people.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-30-03, translated by Venik)