March 29, 2003, 0924hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow -
During
the past day the situation on the US-Iraqi front remained
largely unchanged. The US is continuing reinforcing the
attack group near Karabela for a thrust toward Baghdad.
By the
morning of
March 29 up to 20,000 coalition troops were massed in the
area of Karabela. This forces includes up to 200 tanks,
150 artillery systems and more than 250 helicopters. The
order for the attack will be given by the coalition commander
Gen. Tommy Franks, who, according to intercepted radio
communications, will personally inspect the troops during
the next several hours.
Around 1900hrs yesterday an Apache attack helicopter crashed.
Intercepted radio communications show that the helicopter
was heavily damaged in a combat mission. The helicopter's
pilot lost control during landing and the helicopter crashed,
causing serious damage to another helicopter that landed
earlier.
The coalition troops have so far failed to take An-Nasiriya
despite of the categorical orders from the command and
more than 800 combat missions by the strike aircraft. All
attempts
to break through the Iraqi defense were met by Iraqi counterattacks.
After 24 hours of fighting the coalition troops only managed
to advance several hundred meters in two sectors near An-Nasiriya
at the cost of 4 destroyed armored personnel carriers,
no less that 3 Marines killed by sniper and mortar fire,
10 wounded and 2 missing in action. The exact Iraqi losses
are being determined.
The Americans have also failed to advance near An-Najaf.
Every coalition attack was met by massive artillery barrages
from the Iraqi side. Later during the day the Iraqis mounted
a counterattack throwing the US forces back by 1.5-2 kilometers.
No fewer than 10 Marines were killed or wounded. After
exchanging fire for six hours both warring sides remained
in the same positions. Iraqi losses in this area are estimated
to be 20 killed and up to 40 wounded.
Near Basra the British troops pushed the Iraqi defense
lines on the Fao peninsula but were unable to capture the
entire peninsula. The British advance was a maximum of
4 kilometers from the highway leading to Basra. Radio intercepts
show that in this attack the Iraqis shot down a British
helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were destroyed
by landmines. At least 2 [British] servicemen were killed,
around 20 were wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.
Exchange of fire continued in the area of the Basra airport.
The Iraqis destroyed one coalition APC wounding two coalition
soldiers. The Iraqi losses are difficult to estimate, but
available information suggests that up to 20 Iraqi soldiers
and local militia members might have been killed in the
air and artillery strikes.
All attempts by the British troops to break through the
Iraqi defenses from the south along the Al-Arab river have
yielded not results. The British command reported that
it is unable to storm Basra with the available forces and
will require no less than two additional brigades and at
least five additional artillery battalions. Thus, to avoid
further casualties the British are adopting defensive tactics,
while trying to maintain a tight blockade around Basra
and trying to improve their positions with small localized
attacks. The British are also maintaining pressure on the
Iraqi positions on the Fao peninsula.
The psychological levels among the city's residents, according
to interviews, is far from critical. The Iraqi military
made several public announcements to the residents offering
them a chance to leave the city. However, most of the residents
do not want to leave, fearing the faith of the Palestinian
refugees, who, after losing their homes, gained pariah
status in the Arab world. Basra's residents were extremely
depressed by the video footage aired by the coalition command
showing Iraqis on the occupied territories fighting for
food and water being distributed by the coalition soldiers.
The city's population views this as a sample of what awaits
them if the Americans come...
At the Al-Kuwait airport the unloading of the 4th Mechanized
Infantry Division is continuing and is expected to be completed
by the night of April 1. During a night flight one of the
US military transport aircraft requested an emergency landing.
What happened to the plane is still being determined.
Currently the coalition command is deciding how better
use the 4th Infantry Division. The complete deployment
[of the division] and preparations for combat are expected
to take at least 10 days. However, the combat units require
immediate reinforcements and it is possible that the [4th
Infantry} Division will be joining combat in stages, as
the units become ready. This will mean a considerable reduction
of the Division's combat effectiveness.
A report was obtained, prepared by the Al-Kuwait-based
[coalition] Psychological Operations Tactical Group for
the [coalition] Special Ground Forces Command. The report
analyzed the effectiveness of the information and propaganda
war. According to the report, analysis of the television
broadcasts, intercepted radio communications, interrogations
of Iraqi POWs show that psychologically the Iraqis are
now "more stable and confident" that they were
during the last days before the war. This, according to
the report, is due primarily to the coalition's numerous
military failures.
"...Following nervousness and depression [of the
Iraqis] during the first days of the war we can now observe
a burst of patriotic and nationalistic feelings. ...There
has been a sharp increase in the number of Iraqi refugees,
who left the country before the war, returning to Iraq.
A "cult of war" against the US and the UK is
now emerging among the Iraqis...", the report states.
[Reverse translation from Russian]
[Coalition] analysts believe that if this attitude of
the Iraqis is not changed within the next 7 days, a "resistance
ideology" may take over the Iraqi minds, making the
final [coalition] victory even more difficult. In response
to this report the US Army Psychological Operations command
decided to combine all Iraqi POWs into large groups and
to distribute the resulting video footage to the world
media. A more active use of the Iraqi opposition was suggested
for propaganda work in the occupied villages. The same
opposition members will be used to create video footage
of the "repented" Iraqi POWs and footage of the
local [Iraqi] population "opposing Saddam."
Radio communications intercepted during the last five
days suggest that the coalition is using Israeli airfield
for conducting night air strikes against Iraq. Combat aircraft
are taking off regularly from the [Israeli] Hatzerim and
the Navatim airbases do not return to the same bases but
fly toward the border with Jordan while maintaining complete
radio silence.
Possibly these are just Israeli Air Force exercises,
However, [Russian] radio intercept and radar units observe
increased intensity of radio communications coming from
the Jordanian air force and air defense communication centers
during such overflights, as well as changes in the operating
modes of the US Army "Patriot" tracking radars
deployed in Jordan. This indicates the Israeli airbases
as used as forward airfield or that some of the coalition
air force units are based there. Normally the IAF F-15I
fighter-bombers and A-4N strike aircraft operate from
the Hatzerim airbase and the F-16 fighter-bombers operate
from the Nevatim base.
Experts believe that these airbases may be used by the
F-117 stealth bombers "officially" based at the
Al-Udaid airbase in Qatar. Using these two locations minimizes
the risk to the F-117s by allowing them to fly along the
left bank of the Euphrates (in the direction of Turkey)
and to avoid the dangerous maneuvering over Iraq.
The destruction of the telephone stations in Baghdad did
nothing to disrupt the communications of the Iraqi army.
The coalition command acknowledged this fact after analyzing
the dense [Iraqi] radio traffic. Because of that the USAF
was ordered to employ the most powerful available [conventional]
munitions against predetermined strategic targets. This
attacks will be carried out immediately before renewing
ground advance.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-29-03, translated by Venik)