March 24, 2003
www.iraqwar.ru
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical
center was created recently by a group of journalists
and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against
Iraq. The following is the English translation of the
IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence
reports.
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March
24, 2003, 0800hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - As of morning
(MSK, GMT +3) March 24 the situation in Iraq can be characterized
as quiet on all fronts. Attacking coalition forces have
settled into positional warfare, they are exhausted,
lost the attacking momentum and are in urgent need for
fuel, ammunition, repairs and reinforcements. The Iraqis
are also busy regrouping their forces, reinforcing the
combat units and setting up new defense lines.
Exceptionally heavy fighting continued for two days and
nights near An-Nasiriya. Both warring sides employed large
numbers of tanks and artillery. More than 20,000 troops
of the US 3rd Motorized Infantry Division, supported by
200 tanks, 600 other armored vehicles and 150 artillery
pieces, were opposed by the Iraqi 3rd Army Corps consisting
of up to 40,000 troops, up to 250 tanks, more than 100
artillery, up to 100 mortars and 1000 rocket propelled
grenade launchers (RPG) and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM).
The two-day battle ended without any significant results.
The Americans have failed in trying to use their momentum
in capturing An-Nasiriya and attempted to encircle the
town from the west, where they encountered strong layered
Iraqi defenses and forced to withdraw. The Iraqi forces
used this opportunity to attack the US flanks with two
brigades, breaking the US combat orders and causing panic
among the US troops. The US command was forced to halt
the advance of its forced toward An Najaf and once again
redirect several tank battalions to support the attacked
units. Nearly 6 hours was needed for the US aviation to
stop the Iraqi attack and restore combat order of the US
forces.
During
the past day the coalition aviation flew more than 2,000
close
support missions in this area [An-Nasiriya]. "We
can only thank God for having air dominance!” said the
commander of the US 15th Marines Exp. Corps Col. Thomas
Waldhauser in a private conversation with one of the CNN
reporters. Later the CNN journalist cited the Colonel in
a phone conversation with his editor. The conversation
was intercepted.
According
to the intercepted radio traffic, the US forces have
sustained up to 40 killed, up to 10 captured and up
to 200 wounded during the fighting near An-Nasiriya. There
is confirmed information about one lost attack helicopter
and an unconfirmed report about a lost ground attack plane.
The US forces have also lost up to 40 armored vehicles,
including no less than 10 tanks. Several intercepted reports
by the US field commanders stated that their troops are
unable to advance due to their soldiers being demoralized
by the enemy's fierce resistance and high losses.
Four days of continuous advance exhausted the coalition
forces, which now have settled into defensive positions
nearly on every front to rest and regroup. As of this morning
(MSK, GMT +3) the coalition forces are in control of the
western part of An-Nasiriya but have no foothold on the
left bank of Euphrates. The left bank of the river is controlled
by the Iraqi forces, which are conducting engineering works
to reinforce their defenses. A part of the Iraqi forces
have been deployed to strengthen the defense of An-Najaf,
where they expect the next coalition attack.
Around
2300hrs (MSK, GMT +3) March 23 a British platoon was
ambushed by Iraqi Special Forces unit near Basra. Following
a powerful
initial artillery barrage the Iraqis engaged the British
in close combat and destroyed several armored vehicles.
After the Iraqis withdrew the British commander reported
up to 8 killed, two missing and more than 30 wounded British
soldiers. Thus over the 30% of the unit's troops have been
disabled in the attack. Reinforcements and medevac helicopters
have been dispatched by the coalition to the scene of the
attack.
During the past day there has been a sharp increase in
combat activity in the coalition's rearguard.
Reports have been intercepted showing at least 5 attacks
on the coalition military convoys, 8 vehicles destroyed
by landmines and 2 ambushes. Iraqi special operation units
are mining the roads, setting up ambushes and conduct search
and reconnaissance operations. The coalition forces have
been ordered to halt the movement of convoys during dark
hours and to provide each convoy with combat escort units
and air cover.
The
situation around the borderline town of Umm Qasr (population
1,500)
still remains unclear. Radio intercepts and satellite
images show that the town was under constant bombardment
throughout out the night. The morning photos indicate its
complete destruction. This shows that the coalition command,
fed up with the Iraqi's stubborn resistance, ordered the
complete destruction of the town using aviation and artillery.
However, according to reports by the British troops ordered
to "clean up" Umm Qasr the town still contains
many pockets of resistance. The overall coalition losses
at Umm Qasr during the past four days amounted to up to
40 killed and up to 200 wounded. Currently it is impossible
to estimate the Iraqi losses at Umm Qasr. As of yesterday's
morning the Umm Qasr garrison consisted of 1600 troops.
The units of the British marine infantry have failed to
establish control over the strategically important Fao
peninsula. After yesterday's counterattack by the Iraqis
the British forces have been thrown back some 3 to 5 kilometers
and were forced into defensive positions. Intercepted radio
communications indicate that today the British command
will attempt to regain the lost ground after spending the
night reinforcing their units on Fao with two additional
marine infantry battalions. The overall British losses
on the Fao peninsula during the past four days of fighting
include up to 15 killed and up to 100 wounded. The Iraqis
lost here up to 100 killed and around 100 captured.
A heated exchange of fire continues near Basra. The coalition
units hesitate to enter the city and limit their actions
to constant artillery and aviation bombardment of Basra.
So far the coalition forces have failed to completely surround
the city and to cut off the defending Iraqi garrison from
the main Iraqi forces.
The US troops continue landing in northern Iraqi territories
controlled by the Kurds. It is expected that as early as
tomorrow morning these forces supported by the Kurdish
units will make an attempt to capture the town of Kirkuk.
Aerial
strikes against Iraq continued throughout the night.
A total
of up to 1,500 combat flights were carried out
by the coalition aviation. Additionally, B-52 bombers launched
more than 100 cruise missiles from the so-called "Turkish
corridor". Some 150 more cruise missiles have been
launched by the US and British naval forces.
Intercepted
radio traffic indicates another lost coalition plane
this morning. There was a confirmed loss of a "Predator" unmanned
aerial reconnaissance aircraft.
Any further advances by the coalition within the next
8-12 hours are unlikely. The coalition command in Qatar
has been in meeting since the early morning and is expected
to come up with significant changes to the overall operational
plan. According to most experts the coalition command made
a most serious strategic error by starting the ground phase
of the operation nearly at the very start of the war. The
Americans have violated their own doctrine where the ground
phases of a military operation coincide in time with the
destruction of the enemy from the air.
The US made serious errors in their estimates of the Iraq's
army strength and combat readiness. The US military intelligence
and the CIA failed to uncover the true potential of the
Iraqi forces and, in essence, misinformed the top military
and civilian leadership of the coalition member countries.
(source: iraqwar.ru,
03-24-03, translated by Venik)
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