March 31, 2003, 1828hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow -
During the night of March 30-31 the situation on the US-Iraqi
front became increasingly more critical. All indications
are that the coalition has launched a new attack.
Following a three-hour-long artillery barrage and several
nighttime aviation strikes the coalition forces came in
contact with the Iraqi troops near Karabela and attempted
to move around the Iraqi defenses from the east.
For now the coalition is limiting its actions to probing
the forward layer of the Iraqi defenses, attempting to
assess its density and organization after nearly five days
of artillery and aerial bombardment. There have been no
reports of any coalition breaks through the Iraqi defenses
in this area. At the same time morning radio intercepts
uncovered a large US military convoy moving around the
Razzaza Lake. At the moment it is unclear whether the purpose
of this movement is to get to the town of Ar-Ramdia or
a wider maneuver leading to the town of Al-Falludja.
Another [coalition] convoy numbering up to 100 combat
vehicles was seen near the town of Al-Hillah moving in
the southeaster direction 30 kilometers from the strategic
Baghdad-Basra highway. Given there is no Iraqi resistance
this coalition force will be able to reach the highway
by today’s night. So far there were no reports of
any losses in this area.
The US forces resumed attacking Iraqi defenses near An-Najaf.
The US group of force in this area has been reinforced
with at least three reserve Marine battalions and now Americans
are trying once again to capture this key town. According
to the US intelligence Iraqi defenses in this area number
up to 3,000 troops aided by around 1,500 volunteers and
[Ba’ath] party activists. The Iraqis here are armed
with around 30 T-55 and T-62 tanks, up to four artillery
batteries and more than 300 various anti-tank weapons.
The town is being stormed by the elements of the 1st Marine
Division numbering up to 6,000 troops assisted by 80 tanks
and 60 artillery systems. Additionally, aerial support
is provided by up to 40 helicopters. So far the Americans
were unable to push the enemy. Early today morning an American
tank was destroyed near An-Najaf. At least two of its crew
were killed.
Intensive exchange of fire is continuing in the vicinity
of An-Nasiriya. The US Marines have so far been unable
to side nth staging area they captured seven days ago on
the left bank of Euphrates. The bridge connecting this
staging area with the main coalition forces is nearly destroyed
and is under constant fire from the Iraqi defenses located
in the riverside city blocks. This is the reason why the
[coalition] troops holding the staging area can only be
reinforced by small and lightly-armed units and only during
nighttime. During the past night alone the Marines holding
the staging area sustained 2 killed and 5 wounded.
The situation [for the coalition] is complicated by the
fact that the residential blocks occupied by the defending
Iraqis come to the very edge of the river, giving a significant
advantage to the defenders who control the river and all
approaches to the river. Currently the coalition artillery
and aviation is methodically destroying these blocks in
an attempt to push the Iraqis away from the shoreline.
Intercepted radio communications indicate that the Marines
engineering units are ordered to build a pontoon crossing
up the stream from An-Nasiriya and move up to three battalions
of Marines and troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to
the left bank of the Euphrates for a future strike in the
rear of the An-Nasiriya garrison. The coalition command
would have been ready to bypass other defended crossings
on the Euphrates if it wasn’t for one problem: the
entire group of forces has only two pontoon units. Any
new pontoon units will arrive not sooner than in mid-April.
A standoff between the Basra garrison and the British
marine infantry is continuing in the area of Basra. Using
localized attacks the British are attempting to “lean” on
Basra as closely as possible and to tighten the blockade,
but so far they were unsuccessful. Thus, during the last
night the British attempted to take the town of Al-Hasib
located 7 kilometers southeast of Basra. The British plan
was to reach the Al-Arab River and to slice the local Iraqi
defenses in half, separating Basra from the defending Iraqi
forces on the Fao peninsula. Up to a battalion of the British
marine infantry supported by armored vehicles entered the
town of Al-Hasib from south but in less than an hour they
were stopped by Iraqi fire and requested aviation and artillery
support.
Fighting for the control of the town is continuing. At
least two British soldiers were killed and three were wounded
in this battle. One British armored personnel carrier was
destroyed. British commanders are reporting killing 50
Iraqis and capturing 10. In the area of the As-Zubair River
port, which was declared to be under full coalition control
just a week ago, a British patrol boat was attacked. The
boat was carrying its crew and a marine infantry unit.
As the result of the attack at least 4 British soldiers
were killed and 9 were wounded.
The official coalition losses are, to put it mildly, “falling
behind” the actual figures. The 57 dead acknowledged
by the coalition command reflect losses as of the morning
of March 26. This information was provided to a BBC correspondent
by one of the top medical officials at a field hospital
in Al Kuwait during a confidential conversation. “We
have standing orders to acknowledge only those fatalities
that have been delivered to the hospital, identified and
prepared to be sent back home. The identification process
and the required standard embalming takes some time – occasionally
up to several days. But only the command knows how many
casualties we sustained today and you will learn about
it in about three days…” [Reverse-translated
from Russian] This conversation was taped by the journalist
and sent to the editor via a cellular phone network.
Based on the radio intercepts and internal information
networks of the US field hospitals as of this morning the
coalition losses include no less than 100 killed US servicemen
and at least 35 dead British soldiers. Additionally, some
22 American and 11 British soldiers are officially considered
to be missing in action and the whereabouts of another
400 servicemen are being established. The number of wounded
has exceeded 480 people.
US experts at the coalition command headquarters studied
the cases of destroyed and damaged M1A2 tanks and various
APCs. The conclusion was that without a doubt the Iraqis
do possess modern anti-tank weapons but so far use them
on a “very limited scale.” Only three tanks
have been hit by guided weapons which destroyed these tanks
with the first hit. The rest of the tanks were destroyed
with more standard weapons. Some of the most common causes
[of destroyed armor] include: anti-tank guns (about 40%
of all hits), man-portable rocket-propelled grenade launchers
(25% of hits), and landmines (25% of hits). Effectiveness
of anti-tank artillery has been particularly high. “Impacts
by high-velocity projectiles do not always destroy the
tank and its crew. However, in 90% of all cases the tank
is disabled and the crew is forced to abandon the tank
on the battlefield…” – says the report
that was distributed to the commanders of the forward units
for analysis.
Russian military analysts are advising the Iraqi military
command against excessive optimism. There is no question
that the US “blitzkrieg” failed to take control
of Iraq and to destroy its army. It is clear that the Americans
got bogged down in Iraq and the military campaign hit a
snag. However, the Iraqi command is now in danger of underestimating
the enemy. For now there is no reason to question the resolve
of the Americans and their determination to reach the set
goal – complete occupation of Iraq.
In reality, despite of some obvious miscalculations and
errors of the coalition’s high command, the [coalition]
troops that have entered Iraq maintain high combat readiness
and are willing to fight. The losses sustained during the
past 12 days of fighting, although delivering a painful
blow to the pride and striking the public opinion, are
entirely insignificant militarily speaking. The initiative
in the war remains firmly in the hands of the coalition.
Under such circumstances Iraqi announcements of a swift
victory over the enemy will only confuse its own troops
and the Iraq’s population and, as the result, may
lead to demoralization and a reduced defensive potential…
Russian military analysts believe that the critical for
the US duration of the war would be over 90 days provided
that during that time the coalition will sustain over 1,000
killed. Under such circumstances a serious political crisis
in the US and in the world will be unavoidable.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-31-03, translated by Venik)