Homicide and Suicide - The Facts
Are we dreaming of systems so perfect that people don’t have to be good anymore? - Voltaire
Politicians, the media and gun prohibitionists have told us that the new gun
laws were instigated in response to a mass murder. They are fond of telling us
that Australia has a serious firearm problem in the areas of homicide and
suicide. Just exactly what do the statistics show?
Over most of this century for which records have been kept, that is, from 1910 to 1995, both the homicide and suicide rates, adjusted for population growth to rates per 100,000, have remained fairly stable. See Figures 1 and 4.
Tougher gun laws are the reason that gun prohibitionists give for homicide and suicide by firearm rates falling in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Such statements are nothing more than flawed wishful thinking based upon the highly selective use of observed short term fluctuations. When viewed in light of the overall 85-year trends, their suppositions are without foundation.
In claiming a victory for tougher gun laws, gun prohibitionists fail to address the range of socio-economic factors and world-wide events which have influenced such trends. World War One and the Great Depression clearly had an impact upon the rise of both the overall and by-firearm death rates for both homicide and suicide. Likewise, World War Two clearly had an impact in lowering both the overall and by-firearm death rates for both homicide and suicide at a time when Australia was bristling with firearms.
Why did the overall homicide rate remain stable in the 1950s and '60s, yet the suicide rate increase dramatically? Why did the overall homicide rate rise sharply in the 1970s yet the suicide rate decline? Why did both the homicide and suicide death rates by firearm remain relatively stable throughout these periods? What can these changes or non-changes be attributed to, especially in the absence of harsh firearms laws?
Such hard questions are yet to be addressed by the gun prohibitionists who
have failed to attempt any objective analysis. Let us now examine the issues of
homicide and suicide in more detail.
Figure 1.
Homicide
Figure 1 shows that for the 85-year period the overall homicide rate has varied between a low of 0.8 per 100,000 in 1941 to a high of 2.4 in 1988. The 1910 overall homicide rate was 2.2 per 100,000 whereas the 1995 rate was 1.8. The average for the 85-year period is 1.6, making Australia 0.2 above average at this time.
Homicide by firearm has varied between a low of 0.2 per 100,000 in 1941-42 and 1949-50 to a high of 0.8 in 1919, 1929-30 and 1984. The 1910 rate was 0.5 whereas the 1995 rate was 0.4. The average rate for the 85-year period is 0.5, making Australia 0.1 below average at present. The world average for overall homicides is 7.86 per 100,000 of population with 3.28 being by firearm.(1) Australia is well below the world average.
The years 1988 and 1990-1 produced the worst overall homicide rates for the past 85 years, as shown in Figures 1 and 2. The homicide rate by firearm, however, was not at its peak; more people were being murdered by other methods.
Homicides by firearm have risen and fallen throughout the 85-year period with peaks occurring in 1919, 1929, 1931 and 1984. Another falling trend commenced in 1989 and continues down towards levels similar to that of the post World War Two period. Yet the mid to late 1980s period was coupled with an increase in homicides overall.
By selectively choosing their figures, gun prohibitionists maintain that the 1989-90 fall in homicides by firearm is directly attributable to 'tighter gun laws' as introduced by various jurisdictions, yet they produce no evidence whatsoever to substantiate such a claim.
As shown in Figure 2, what such prohibitionists fail to point out is that in 1988 the overall deaths by homicide were the highest in 85 years, that the 1989 overall deaths by homicide merely indicated a return to the 1987 figure, and that by 1991-92, the by-firearm homicide deaths were again higher than they were in 1989. What, then, happened to the effectiveness of the new laws? In addition, to what new factors do these firearm-phobic prohibitionists attribute the massive increase in overall homicides in 1988 and 1990-91?
Figure 2
Over the last sixteen years the facts as shown in Figure 2 demonstrate that whilst firearm related homicides have decreased significantly from 97 (37%) of all homicides in 1979 to 67 (20%) in 1995, the overall homicide deaths from all causes have increased from 265 in 1979 to 333 in 1995. Homicide by firearm has demonstrated a falling trend since well before the introduction of any punitive legislation.
In comparison, Figure 3 shows that homicide by sharp instrument has risen from 57 (22%) in 1979 to 110 (33%) in 1995. All that appears to be occurring is weapon substitution by the perpetrator. It is a significant fact that more than 85% of all homicides are not committed by firearm.
Clearly firearms are not the problem. Homicide is the problem. The only question of any significance is why Australians are wanting to kill each other. Rather than blaming firearms, which currently account for only one in five homicides, the community ought to direct its efforts towards remedying the circumstances which drive one person in our society to want to kill another.
Figure 3
Figure 4
Suicide
Figure 4 shows that for the 85-year period the overall suicide rate has varied between a low of 7.1 per 100,000 in 1943 to a high of 15.7 in 1963. The 1910 rate was 11.7 whereas the 1995 rate was 13.1. The average for the 85-year period is 11.7, making Australia 1.4 above average at this time.
Suicide by firearm has varied between a low of 1.6 per 100,000 in 1943-44 to a high of 4.1 in 1914. The 1910 rate was 3.2 whereas the 1995 rate was 2.2. The average rate for the 85-year period is 3.0, making Australia 0.8 below average at present.
The suicide rate, especially amongst young males, has increased significantly over the last ten years. Australia has the unenviable record of having held the world's highest male youth suicide rate. Figure 4, however, shows that the overall suicide rate is still lower than it was in the early 1930s and 1960s. Furthermore, Figure 5 demonstrates that while over the last sixteen years the overall suicide rate continues an upward trend, the use of a firearm as a method continues downwards.
Firearm suicides have decreased significantly from 526 (31% of all suicides) in 1979 to 388 (16%) in 1995, a drop of almost half. Suicides from all causes have, however, risen from 1,677 in 1979 to a staggering 2,367 in 1995. Again, all that appears to be occurring is method substitution. What is important is the fact that Australians are killing themselves in ever increasing numbers, not what their choice of method happens to be.
Gun prohibitionists indicate that after a peak number of overall suicides occurring in 1987 and 1991, the 1988-89 and 1992-93 drops in overall suicide rates are directly attributable to 'tighter gun laws' introduced by the various jurisdictions. Again, there is no evidence whatsoever to substantiate this assertion.
As shown in Figure 4, what such zealots fail to point out is that the high overall suicide rate for 1987 (13.8) and 1991 (13.7) was still well below the rates per 100,000 for the year 1930 (14.6) and especially though the sixties -1963 (15.7), 1964 (14.5), 1965 (14.8), 1966 (14.0) and 1967 (15.1), when no such punitive firearms legislation existed. When such peaks subsided, they obviously did so as a result of other factors, without the help of gun laws.
In addition, if legislative changes in the late 1980s brought about a reduction in both overall and by-firearm suicide rates for two years, why then did both suicide rates increase again from 1990 to 1992?
Figure 5
Have the tougher gun laws helped to reduce the overall suicide rate today? Clearly they have not. Figure 5 shows suicide by firearm in a falling trend since well before the introduction of the restrictive late 1980s and early 1990s firearms legislation.
The highly flawed Cantor and Slater "study"(2) is often quoted as demonstrating the effectiveness of tougher firearms legislation in Queensland in reducing suicides. The study does no such thing, as was demonstrated in the Australian Shooters Journal of March, 1996.
Suicide is a self-inflicted choice. The self is the victim. No other person is responsible. To use suicide as an argument against civilian firearm ownership is about government attempting to be over-responsible for and over-controlling of its citizens. Personal responsibility and accountability for one's actions must prevail. No amount of firearm education and training, registration and restriction or licensing of people will prevent them from killing themselves if that is what they are determined to do.
Rather than blaming firearms, which currently account for one in six suicides, the community needs to direct effort towards remedying the circumstances which drive a person to suicide. These include such known factors as not having a job or financial security, not having successful relationships and not having a future to work towards.
Incredibly, calls are now being made for pharmaceutical companies to place nausea-inducing additives into paracetamol, and for car manufacturers to modify vehicle exhaust systems and emissions to make it harder for people to suicide through carbon monoxide poisoning.(3) When are this country's decision-makers going to get the message about addressing the root causes, and not the symptoms? Again, available resources ought to be expended in the identification and amelioration of real root causes rather than the current futile focus upon method selection.
As with homicides, clearly firearms are not the problem and they never have been. Suicide is the problem. The only question of any significance is why. What is it that makes Australians, especially young males, want to kill themselves?
In relation to suicide, questions of gun legislation are in reality almost irrelevant. If a firearm is not available then clearly, as numerous domestic and international studies demonstrate, an alternative method will be substituted. Suicide is a reality and in Australia continues to be a major issue which will not be remedied by focusing upon one of the methods less frequently used. It is time the governments of Australia addressed the causes of unacceptable levels of suicide and stopped playing with band-aids.
What Does It All Mean?
No comprehensive comparative study or analysis concerning either the overall or by-firearm death rates for homicide or suicide has been completed in this country. There is no significant work in relation to any confirmed variations or trends of homicide or suicide rates as affected by any old or new legislation in force across the various jurisdictions of Australia.
Instead, what politicians and the Australian public receive through the media is reports of dishonest, incomplete and inconclusive "studies" and "research" and misleading "surveys". Such works usually focus upon the method used in a small sample of homicides and suicides or make assumptions about correlations between a piece of legislation and an accompanying drop in figures. People's yes-or-no opinions are asked about complex issues of which they can know little and this is passed off as an informed majority community view. This is pure charlatanism.
Could it be that one reason why there have been few serious statistical studies undertaken in Australia by government instrumentalities using established tests of statistical significance is that any such tests could return results highly inconvenient to the superior intuition of Australia's policy makers?
Clearly the Australian public has been misled. Most politicians, bureaucrats, academics, gun prohibitionists and the media have presented nothing more than select groups of statistics and quotations in publications which effectively act as propaganda to justify a preconceived ideological position.
Such studies ignore the impact of wider societal issues and lack logic, intellectual rigour and integrity. What they do not lack is the common aim of removal of the private ownership of firearms from law-abiding citizens, come what may.
The problems of homicide and suicide are more about values, morals and ethics than about knives, guns and ropes. It is high time that they are addressed as such.
Endnotes:
1) United Nations Economic and Social Council, Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice, "Criminal Justice Reform and Strengthening of Legal Institutions: Measures To Regulate Firearms - Report of the Secretary-General", Vienna, April, 1997, E/CN.15/1997/4, p24.
2) Cantor, Christopher H., Slater, Penelope J., "The impact of firearm control legislation on suicide in Queensland: preliminary findings", The Medical Journal Of Australia Vol. 162, 5 June, 1995, pp583-85.
3) Hannan, Ewin, "Painkiller, car fumes targeted to cut suicide", The Weekend Australian, 19-20 July, 1997, p3.