Fermi Paradox resources ----------------------- ET Visitors: Scientists See High Likelihood (Fermi's Paradox) http://www.space.com/searchforlife/et_betterodds_050114.html More on aliens and Fermi Paradox: http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3aa.html#fermiparadox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_filter Center for the Study of Extraterrestrial Intelligence (CSETI) http://cseti.com/ A good overview of the problem is David Brin's Xenology: The Science of Asking Who's Out There and The 'Great Silence': the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life. http://www.davidbrin.com/xenology1.htm Book: Where Is Everybody?: Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life by Stephen Webb. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?isbn=0387955011 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1136042/Intelligent-life-thriving-40-000-planets.html?ITO=1490 Intelligent life could be thriving on 40,000 planets [---Huh! The online article has been almost totally rewritten aka dumbed down. Original text as below.---] Astrophysicist Duncan Forgan created a computer programme that collated all the data on the 330 or so planets known to man and worked out what proportion would have conditions suitable for life. Forgan's equations (and Drake's/Greenbank's before) all operate on the definition of life as that which we know, carbon based, water as the mixing medium, and a defined temperature range based on the properties of water and carbon. But what about life that uses methane as the mixing medium? Or life based on silicon rather than carbon? The problem is that there may be modes of life so totally alien to us that we might not even recognize them, which means we cannot factor them into our calculations. Scientists talk about how "lucky" we are that Earth is in the "right" place for life to develop, but they have it backwards. We are the life that evolves on a planet in these conditions. We find Earth comfortable because we evolved here. We see the so-called visible spectrum because that is the light that gets through the atmosphere to illuminate the world. But this does not mean that other worlds quite different from Earth do not evolve life forms which find those conditions. deadly to us, to be quite comfortable. Life that evolved on a cloud covered world and living in darkness may not have eyes as we do, but if their environment is awash with radio waves (as is Jupiter) they may see in radio frequencies. We know from the methane results that Mars may well indeed have life on it (in which case I am owed several bets from Viking co-workers). We may yet find Titan harbors a life form which, based on methane instead of water, finds the Titan climate quite balmy! So, in my estimate, the 40,000 figure is probably way too low! And we should not place too much emphasis on picking up broadcasts from alien planets, as our own current trend of moving from open-air broadcast to cable distribution suggests that the window of time when an alien civilization "leaks" vast amounts of radio energy into the cosmos may be brief indeed! And, we should not assume that merely because radio waves are a major means of communications for Earth, that other civilizations, especially space-faring ones, are not using some other means of communications, such as modulated gravity waves. ------- Two related interesting articles: http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case17.html A Cycle of History? http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/case8.html The Silence Was Deafening Back To The Beginning: Transhumanism To Use Emerging Science As Gateway To Unknown http://www.raidersnewsnetwork.com/full.php?news=658 (gone) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7399703/So-what-would-YOU-say-to-ET.html So what would YOU say to ET? A Telegraph competition to see what messages Earthlings want to send to extraterrestrials has produced some shocking results, says Robert Colvile. "A month ago, we helped launch a competition to find the best messages to be sent hurtling into space, in order to mark the 50th anniversary of the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) programme and the publication of The Eerie Silence: Are We Alone in the Universe?, a new book by the astrophysicist, Paul Davies." 'The Eerie Silence’ by Paul Davies (Allen Lane) is available from Telegraph Books for £18 plus £1.25 p&p. To order, call 0844 871 1515 or visit books.telegraph.co.uk http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/14/life-aliens-planet-second-genesis Life, but not as we know it The place to look for aliens could be right here on our own planet – in Earth's second genesis Podcast: Paul Davies talks about his new book about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, The Eerie Silence 20110207 http://hanson.gmu.edu/econofsf.html The Economics of Science Fiction, by Robin Hanson http://hanson.gmu.edu/nodoom.html Critiquing the Doomsday Argument 20110426 http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1475.htm April 24, 2011 US Warns Russia: “Aliens On Their Way, Will Be Here In 2012” http://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2010-so16-is-following-earth-in-its-orbit-around-sun/comment-page-1#comment-563505 My comment: TerraHertz says: April 26, 2011 at 1:46 am Sounds like a nice ringside seat, for a Watcher. Suggestion: Check to see if there are several similar objects in this same orbital configuration, only ‘phased’ so there is always at least one near the ‘endpoint’ relatively close to Earth. Oh, and perhaps check for the same currently near the ‘leading’ point too. How else would one arrange to observe Earth from opposed points, safely far away, but not too far? For your amusement, a short story: everist.org/texts/Fermis_Urbex_Paradox.txt http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Asteroid_2005_YU55_To_Approach_Earth_Nov_8_2011_999.html My comment (can't post) Just wondering, is that path animation taking into account gravitation from the Earth and Moon? I realize the asteroid's path curvature would be slight, but on that it looks totally straight. Asking, because if it _isn't_ factored in, then the real effects I'd guess, would be to bring 2005_YU55 somewhat closer to the Moon. Both time and curvature wise. How much closer? Enough for a major vector change? 20110625 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-infinite-hedge-long-enough-timeline-survival-rate-everyone-rises-infinity Guest Post: Infinite Hedge: On a Long Enough Timeline, the Survival Rate for Everyone Rises to Infinity 20120122 http://exopolitics.org/Study-Paper-13.htm Trillion dollar lawsuit exposes secret Bilderberg Gold Treaty & funding of extraterrestrial projects Michael E. Salla, MA., Ph.D. 20120213 http://earthspeaks.seti.org/ “If we discover intelligent life beyond Earth, should we reply, and if so, what should we say?” People from around the world are invited to submit pictures, sounds, and text messages that they would want to send to other worlds. The project aims to foster a dialogue about what we should say to extraterrestrial intelligence, as well as whether or not we should be sending intentional messages. 20120225 http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/february/slac-nomad-planets-022312.html Researchers say galaxy may swarm with 'nomad planets' Nomad planets don't circle stars, but may carry bacterial life, say researchers from Kavli Institute. Our galaxy may be awash in homeless planets, wandering through space instead of orbiting a star. In fact, there may be 100,000 times more "nomad planets" in the Milky Way than stars, according to a new study by researchers at the Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology (KIPAC), a joint institute of Stanford University and the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Drake Equation http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=drake+equation 20110207 http://blog.jackadam.net/2011/the-tiny-humanity-bubble/ I'm surprised no one here seems to have mentioned the Fermi Paradox, or the Drake Equation. Some links: http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3aa.html#fermiparadox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_filter http://cseti.com/ A good overview of the problem is David Brin's Xenology: The Science of Asking Who's Out There and The 'Great Silence': the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life. http://www.davidbrin.com/xenology1.htm Book: Where Is Everybody?: Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life by Stephen Webb. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?isbn=0387955011 http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=drake+equation And my own small contribution, a short story: http://everist.org/texts/Fermis_Urbex_Paradox.txt Further: The problem with the Drake Equation is that it doesn't recognize that the interval during which a society of intelligent beings remains both a 'society' *and* high tech, is invariably very brief relative to planetary evolution timescales. Thus the potential for spheres of expanding 'communication' (modulated radio or light waves) is low, and the 'thickness' of such spheres will be very small, ie they will be thin shells. At the rate humans are headed for our own meeting with genetics-tech vs speciation moment of truth, I'd guess our radio shell will end up being thinner than 200 light years from leading to trailing edge. When I plugged a few guesstimate values into the wolfram Drake Equation site, the result is '0.4 communicating civilizations on average'. When you allow for the distance probabilities for such rare 'shells' of communication, it's no wonder we can't hear anyone at the moment.